IMF reduces growth forecasts for the United States almost

Trump’s unleashed trade war will Impact on global economy growthL. This is calculated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which published Tuesday the update of its growth forecasts, marked by these movements of the American president. The monetary institution has reduced its growth forecasts for January and provides that the world economy is increasing 2.8% this year and 3% in 2026half-point of the first year. The sum of the fall amounts to 0.8% if we count the two exercises, with regard to what they predicted three months ago.

But the large strong fall is due to the United States, whose forecasts were reduced by 0.9%, depending on the global economic prospects (WEO) of the IMF. The estimation of growth for this year is 1.8% and the prices represent 0.4 percentage point of this reduction. According to the alternative trajectory calculated by the IMF, without prices, global growth would have known only a modest accumulated reduction of 0.2 percentage points, between 2025 and 2026, reaching growth of 3.2% between two years.

“The rapid escalation of trade tensions He generated extremely high levels of political ambiguity, which makes it more difficult to establish a prospect of central global growth, “warns the IMF. The report takes into account not only the tariff announcements proclaimed by the republican president between the February 1 and April 4, But also the countermeasures of other countries.

In all this context, Spain appears its head as the Unique advanced savings that will grow in 2025. The IMF report points to Spain GDP growth of 2.5% in 20250.2% more than in the previous report, as already published a few days ago. By 2026, the agency forecasts GDP growth of 1.8%, just as it predicted in January.

What this report adds is the possibility of comparison with other advanced economies, not only the United States that loses in this Trump economic competition. For advanced savings, says the IMF, growth is expected to decrease 1.8% estimated in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. It is now planned that growth by 2025 will be 0.5 percentage points lower than that of January projections. Forecasts by 2025 include significant drop exams for Canada (-0.6%), Japan (-0.5%), the United Kingdom (-0.5%)Germany (-0.2%) or France (-0.3%), among others.

The good performance of the Spanish economy

On Spain, “whose dynamism contrasts with the slow dynamics of the rest of the world”, the IMF underlines that “the important vestige of the results best than expected in 2024”, and also notes the activities undertaken for reconstruction after the floods caused by DANA. In the specific annual form for Spain, published on April 10, the IMF highlighted “a solid performance” of the Spanish economy, supported by exports of services and in the Good labor market development.

“It is expected that consumption growth remains solid, with a continuous increase in real wages and a gradual decrease in household savings rates, which will compensate for the slowest increase in employment,” summed up the IMF. The agency then provided an unemployment rate of around 11% in the medium term and that general and underlying inflation will continue to decrease to place itself About 2% at the end of the year.

In addition, the IMF added that in the short term, the Spanish economy will continue above the average of the Euro- à-to area which now predicts growth of 0.8% for this year Before “gradually delegating”, because the increase in the population of the age of labor and exports is normal.

The IMF and BM reach their spring meeting with prices in the background

Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (BM) began on Monday met prices as a backdrop and warning the consequences of uncertainty and volatility generated by Trump’s measures. IMF general director Kristalina Georgieva, and BM president Ajay Banga has already warned the previous days that these effects will slow the growth of global domestic product (GDP). The two economists have considered it essential to collaborate to reach agreements quickly and to establish clearer rules for world trade, EFE collects.

More specifically, also the Bulgarian policy He said last Thursday that the projections now published would include “notable reductions” in terms of growth, although The “recession” has been excluded.

The appointment takes place at a time when Trump again questioned multilateralism and in which his administration is in the midst of the organizations to which he belongs and supports. The United States is the main shareholder both in the IMF and the BM and there are doubts about whether the country will continue to contribute to its initiatives, such as the commitment of $ 4,000 million for the International Development Association (AIF) which signed its predecessor last year, Democrat Joe Biden (2021-2025), EFE.